Merz Vows to Keep AfD Out of Government as Far Right Leads Polls in Eastern Germany

Verified key facts

• Chancellor Friedrich Merz vowed at his Berlin summer press conference on 15 July 2026 to do everything in his power to keep the AfD out of state government, Reuters reported.
• The AfD leads polls with about 41% in Saxony-Anhalt and 36% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania ahead of September's regional elections.
• Merz appealed to AfD voters to judge his government on its record, while reaffirming the 'firewall' against cooperation with the party.
• A Forsa poll found 85% of Germans dissatisfied with the Merz cabinet; ARD's Deutschlandtrend put satisfaction with the chancellor at 13%.
• Merz also said the United States should not interfere in German elections, following reports of a US programme supporting political groups in Europe.

What happened

Chancellor Friedrich Merz used his annual summer press conference in Berlin on 15 July to draw a hard line against the far-right Alternative for Germany. Reuters reported that Merz ruled out any cooperation with the AfD and pledged to prevent it from entering government in any federal state. The roughly 90-minute session set the tone for a defining autumn.

'If a right-wing radical party were to enter government in Germany, it would carry a completely different significance,' Merz told reporters. 'In Germany, I will do everything in my power to prevent it.' He reaffirmed the so-called firewall, the mainstream taboo on coalitions or cooperation with the AfD.

At the same time, Merz reached out to the party's voters. Reuters reported that he appealed to AfD supporters to judge his government on its merits rather than on protest sentiment. The dual message reflects his party's dilemma: it needs eastern voters the AfD is winning.

The September stakes

Regional elections in September could hand the AfD its first state-level government. Polling cited by Reuters puts the party at about 41 percent in Saxony-Anhalt and 36 percent in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In Saxony-Anhalt, analysts see a realistic path to an AfD majority of seats.

Merz expressed confidence that his Christian Democrats would still deny the AfD power in all three states voting this autumn. That likely requires awkward coalitions spanning conservatives, social democrats and the left-leaning parties. Each such alliance feeds the AfD's argument that mainstream parties govern as a single bloc.

The federal constitutional court and domestic intelligence service have long classified parts of the AfD as right-wing extremist. A state government led by the party would test German institutions in ways the postwar republic has never experienced.

A chancellor governing from a polling trough

Merz spoke from a position of historic unpopularity. A Forsa poll found 85 percent of Germans dissatisfied with the performance of the chancellor and his cabinet. The ARD Deutschlandtrend survey put satisfaction with Merz at 13 percent, the weakest rating for an incumbent chancellor in the survey's three-decade history.

Asked about the numbers, Merz said he was trying to understand the reasons. His coalition points to a sweeping reform package agreed in early July, covering pensions, energy prices and administrative modernisation, as evidence of momentum, Al Jazeera reported. Voters have yet to reward it.

• 41%: AfD support in recent Saxony-Anhalt polling ahead of the September vote.
• 13%: satisfaction with Chancellor Merz in ARD's Deutschlandtrend survey.
• 85%: Germans dissatisfied with the cabinet's performance, per Forsa.

The American subplot

Merz also addressed reports of a US programme supporting political groups in Europe. He said Washington should not interfere in German elections, remarks carried by international agencies. Senior figures in the US administration have repeatedly amplified AfD talking points, straining the transatlantic relationship.

The chancellor's warning signals how sensitive foreign backing for the far right has become in Berlin. German security services have separately accused Russia of sustained disinformation campaigns targeting eastern German voters. September's elections will unfold under more external scrutiny, and interference risk, than any German regional vote before them.

Implications for Germany and Europe

Germany is the EU's largest economy and its political anchor. An AfD breakthrough at state level would embolden nationalist parties across the bloc and complicate Berlin's support for Ukraine, which the AfD opposes. Even a near miss would push German politics further toward fragmentation and grand coalitions of exhaustion.

For Merz personally, the autumn votes double as a referendum on his chancellorship. A rout in the east would invite challenges from within his own party. His coalition partners, already bruised by poor polling, would face pressure to distance themselves before the next federal election.

What to watch next

The campaign now moves into its decisive phase, with state votes in September in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. Watch whether the AfD's Saxony-Anhalt numbers hold above 40 percent, the threshold at which blocking coalitions become arithmetically difficult. Watch, too, whether Merz's reform package delivers visible results on energy bills before voting day.

The Local reported that the chancellor plans a series of appearances in eastern states through August. His message, competence over protest, will be tested against a party that has turned dissatisfaction into a durable movement.

Sources

• Reuters via Internazionale - Merz reaches out to AfD voters before pivotal German regional election (15 July 2026)
• The Local Germany - Today in Germany: roundup of the latest news on Thursday (16 July 2026)
• Türkiye Today - Germany's Merz vows to block far-right AfD from regional power (15 July 2026)
• Al Jazeera - German coalition agrees on sweeping reform package in key breakthrough (2 July 2026)