Trump's Approval Map in August: Warning Signs in the Swing States That Elected Him

Verified key facts

• Morning Consult's state-by-state tracker shows President Trump with net-negative approval in Wisconsin (-8), Michigan (-5), Nevada (-3), North Carolina (-3), Pennsylvania (-2), Arizona (-2) and Georgia (-1)
• National polling compiled by Newsweek puts the president at roughly 37% approval against 57% disapproval
• Trump's strongest states in August polling are Wyoming and North Dakota at 59% approval, per state polling compiled by Newsweek
• Axios reported that Trump has grown increasingly unpopular in the states that made him president
• The searches for state approval data spiked this week as the numbers circulated ahead of the November midterm campaign

A map that tells two stories

Eighteen months into his second term, Donald Trump presides over one of the most geographically polarised approval maps in modern polling. State-by-state figures circulating this week, led by Morning Consult's fifty-state tracker, show a president still commanding solid majorities across the interior West and the Deep South while sitting underwater in every state that decided the last election.

The numbers driving the conversation are the battleground ones. Morning Consult's August tracker puts the president's net approval at minus eight in Wisconsin, minus five in Michigan, minus three in both Nevada and North Carolina, minus two in Pennsylvania and Arizona, and minus one in Georgia. Every state that delivered his 2024 victory now leans against him.

The national picture is worse than the map suggests

Nationally, the president's position has deteriorated through the summer. Polling compiled by Newsweek this week puts him at roughly 37% approval against 57% disapproval, a twenty-point deficit that ranks among the weaker readings of his second term. The spread between his best and worst states now exceeds thirty points.

The pattern is not new, but its depth is. Axios reported that Trump has become increasingly unpopular precisely in the states that made him president, a formulation that captures the political problem: a coalition efficient enough to win the Electoral College in 2024 is fraying at its decisive edges while piling up redundant support where it is least needed.

Where the president remains strong

The floor, however, is holding. Wyoming and North Dakota give the president 59% approval in the August state figures compiled by Newsweek, with West Virginia at 55%, Alabama at 53%, and Idaho, Oklahoma and South Dakota each at 52%. In these states the second term's turbulence — the Iran war, the tariff fights, the Washington construction spree — has barely dented his standing.

That resilience matters for the midterm maths. Senate contests in deep-red territory remain safe regardless of the national environment, which is why strategists in both parties focus almost entirely on the seven battlegrounds where the president's net approval has turned negative.

It also shapes the president's own calendar. His campaign-style events this summer have clustered in safe territory, where crowds are guaranteed and coverage is friendly, while surrogates carry the battleground burden. Whether that allocation reflects strategy or necessity is a question his party's committees are said to be debating as the autumn schedule is drawn up.

Why the swing states have soured

The battleground erosion tracks the economy more than any single controversy. Morning Consult's own polling commentary through the summer has consistently found cost-of-living concerns leading the list of voter complaints in the industrial Midwest, where tariff-driven price rises land hardest on the consumers the president promised to protect.

The president's signature second-term projects have not helped in these states. Polling reported by CNN affiliate coverage found his Washington construction programme — the ballroom, the helipad, the planned Dulles Airport makeover — broadly unpopular, reading to many voters as a distraction from grocery prices. Approval of his handling of the Iran conflict, meanwhile, splits sharply along partisan lines and moves few undecided voters.

The midterm stakes

Midterm elections are referendums on presidents, and the historical pattern is unforgiving: a president below 40% approval has never seen his party gain House seats in the modern era. The seven states where Trump now polls underwater host the Senate races and the bulk of the competitive House districts that will decide control of Congress in November.

Republican strategists quoted in this week's coverage argue the map overstates the danger, noting that midterm electorates are smaller and more partisan than presidential ones, and that the party's Senate candidates in several battlegrounds currently outpoll the president. Democrats counter that Alaska's primary this week — where Mary Peltola outpolled the incumbent senator — shows even red-tinted states are in play in the current environment.

The polls behind the polls

A note of caution runs through the analyst commentary: state-level approval polling is noisier than national tracking, with smaller samples and less frequent fielding. Morning Consult's tracker aggregates responses over months, which smooths noise but lags fast-moving events. The August figures largely predate the current crypto-driven market rally, which the White House will hope lifts economic sentiment.

Pollsters also point out that approval is not vote choice. Some voters who disapprove of the president still back his party's candidates, and midterm turnout models matter more than topline sentiment. But no campaign professional in either party reads a minus-eight net approval in Wisconsin as anything but a flashing warning light.

There is also the question of intensity. Disapproval that is broad but shallow can be outworked by a motivated base; disapproval that is deep drives turnout on its own. The battleground surveys this summer have increasingly found the latter, which is the finding that most alarms Republican field operatives.

Seventy-five days to a verdict

The midterms are now less than eleven weeks away, and the president's team has signalled its response: lean into the economy's bright spots, keep the base energised, and trust that the disapproval numbers reflect a national mood rather than fifty state-level verdicts. The map suggests a harder truth — that the states which decide American elections have, for now, decided against him.

Whether that holds through the autumn depends on prices at the till, the course of the markets and events no tracker can foresee. What the August map establishes is the starting line: a president fortress-strong in his heartland, and behind in every state where November will actually be fought.

Sources

• Morning Consult - Donald Trump Approval Rating by State tracker
• Newsweek - President Trump's approval rating by state as of August 2026
• Axios - Trump increasingly unpopular in the states that made him president
• CNN - Trump unveils another White House construction project